FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Clarke Field this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.00 for HFX Wanderers FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, HFX Wanderers FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to FC Edmonton's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that HFX Wanderers FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 65% versus HFX Wanderers FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 53% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.54 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.110 / defence 1.139 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.293. Data: 49 FC Edmonton games / 49 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | HFX Wanderers FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Edmonton are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 60% | HFX Wanderers FC 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Edmonton 1.54 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.110 / def 1.139 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.836 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.23
HFX Wanderers FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
FC Edmonton 3 - 2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 44% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (6 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 1 | HFX Wanderers FC 4W.
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (1.11) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.84x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.98
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.77
1.23
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.23 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Edmonton come into this having played 49 games, going 8W 16D 25L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (15W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.20 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Edmonton's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (4W 8D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 8W 16D 25L in their last 49 games (0.82 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.17 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
HFX Wanderers FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 58%, HFX Wanderers FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Edmonton) and 46% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 42% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as FC Edmonton edge out HFX Wanderers FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-2 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.54 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 30%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 53%, HFX Wanderers FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 0.82 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Edmonton win broke the near-deadlock. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.