FC Edmonton 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as FC Edmonton welcome Forge to Clarke Field. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Edmonton have posted 3W 3D 4L at Clarke Field — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 1 for Forge and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Forge winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Forge in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 65% versus Forge 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 50% | Forge 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.18 xG and Forge 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.076 / defence 1.458 | Forge attack 0.967 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.221. Data: 27 FC Edmonton games / 26 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 24% | Draw 28% | Forge 48%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Forge 2.08. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 70% | Forge 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 24% | Draw 28% | Forge 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Edmonton 1.18 / Forge 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.076 / def 1.458 | Forge attack 0.967 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Forge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Forge xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Forge kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Forge kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
FC Edmonton 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Forge part of?
FC Edmonton vs Forge is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 24% chance of winning, Forge a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Edmonton and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Record (2 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 0 | Forge 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (1.08) and Forge's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
24%
4.14
28%
3.57
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.90
1.72
Forge xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
23.17
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.72 for Forge, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 5W 10D 11L from 26 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 16W 2D 8L across 26 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Edmonton have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 8W 1D 3L across 12 trips, a 2.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.50 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Forge have gone 16W 2D 8L in their last 26 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.33 PPG; Forge away: 2.08 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Forge in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Forge runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, Forge have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 67%, Forge 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Edmonton) and 42% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 33% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 42% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Forge tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Forge in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Edmonton defy the odds to beat Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat Forge 1-0 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.18 xG and Forge 1.72 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.08 / defence 1.46 against Forge attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 24% | Draw 28% | Forge 48%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a FC Edmonton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 50%, Forge 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with FC Edmonton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.