FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton at Clarke Field this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.00 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Cavalry FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Cavalry FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cavalry FC have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 65% versus Cavalry FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 54% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.81 xG and Cavalry FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.226 / defence 1.227 | Cavalry FC attack 0.976 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.184. Data: 52 FC Edmonton games / 52 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Cavalry FC 3.33. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Edmonton are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 60% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Edmonton 1.81 / Cavalry FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.226 / def 1.227 | Cavalry FC attack 0.976 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
FC Edmonton 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 47% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Record (8 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 2 | Cavalry FC 6W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (1.23) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.98x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.37
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
3.23
1.42
Cavalry FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.42 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 9W 17D 26L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 24W 13D 15L from 52 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 9W 17D 26L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.24 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
FC Edmonton
2
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 0, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 60%, Cavalry FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Edmonton) and 52% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Edmonton's games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat FC Edmonton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 0-1 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.81 xG and Cavalry FC 1.42 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Edmonton fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.23 / defence 1.23 against Cavalry FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 30%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 54%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.