Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates York United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 June 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.46 xG and York United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | York United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.473 / away 1.011. Data: 0 Cavalry FC games / 0 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 17% | Draw 35% | York United 48%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | York United 2.08. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Cavalry FC's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.45 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jun 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 17% | Draw 35% | York United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 23% | xG Cavalry FC 0.46 / York United 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | York United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.473 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: York United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.46
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
York United xG
23%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 27 June 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 17% chance of winning, York United a 48% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.46. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.85x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (21.8%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
17%
5.91
35%
2.82
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
23.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.46
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.45
0.99
York United xG
5.91
17%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.30
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
63%
1.59
Win to Nil
6%
15.87
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 0.46 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.99 for York United, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Pre-Season
York United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.46 xG and York United 0.99 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against York United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 17% | Draw 35% | York United 48%, with York United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Cavalry FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.