Cavalry FC 2-4 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at ATCO Field — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Valour 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | Valour 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and Valour 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.784 / defence 1.029 | Valour attack 0.744 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.097. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Cavalry FC games / 26 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 35% | Valour 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Valour 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Valour 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 35% | Valour 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Cavalry FC 1.21 / Valour 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.784 / def 1.029 | Valour attack 0.744 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Valour xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 2 - 4 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 42% chance of winning, Valour a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Valour (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.74x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
42%
2.39
35%
2.83
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.84
Valour xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.84 for Valour, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 12W 8D 5L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 8W 4D 13L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 1D 9L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.16 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 12W 8D 5L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Valour have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Valour away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 46%, Valour 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cavalry FC) and 54% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Valour in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 54% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 54% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valour in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Cavalry FC 2-4 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and Valour 0.84 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Valour outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Valour attack 0.74 / defence 1.33, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 35% | Valour 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, Valour 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.