Cavalry FC 4-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Valour.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 4W 5D 1L at ATCO Field — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Valour's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Valour in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Cavalry FC 3W, Valour 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 62% versus Valour 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 54% | Valour 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.13 xG and Valour 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.138 / defence 0.965 | Valour attack 0.935 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.384. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Cavalry FC games / 34 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 58% | Draw 21% | Valour 22%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Valour 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Valour 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 58% | Draw 21% | Valour 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Cavalry FC 2.13 / Valour 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.138 / def 0.965 | Valour attack 0.935 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Valour xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 4 - 0 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 58% chance of winning, Valour a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Record (6 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 2 | Valour 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Valour (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.94x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.85
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.25
Valour xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
3%
38.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.25 for Valour, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 31W 14D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 13W 15D 28L from 56 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.04 PPG from 28 outings (16W 9D 3L).
On the road, Valour have gone 5W 9D 14L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 14D 11L in their last 56 games (1.91 PPG), while Valour have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Valour away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Valour in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Valour see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 68%, Valour 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cavalry FC's matches and 50% of Valour's.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 4-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.13 xG and Valour 1.25 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Valour attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 58% | Draw 21% | Valour 22%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 54%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.