Cavalry FC 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 August 2021, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at ATCO Field this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG, Pacific FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 46% versus Pacific FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | Pacific FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.794 / defence 1.204 | Pacific FC attack 0.771 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 0.908. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pacific FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cavalry FC games / 11 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Pacific FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 33% | Pacific FC 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cavalry FC 0.98 / Pacific FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.794 / def 1.204 | Pacific FC attack 0.771 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.000 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pacific FC xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 37% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
37%
2.67
33%
3.07
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.82
0.84
Pacific FC xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.84 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 6W 2D 3L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 2L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.82 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pacific FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pacific FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cavalry FC 25% BTTS, Pacific FC 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 50%; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Pacific FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 25% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 50% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cavalry FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and Pacific FC finished level at 0-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 0.84 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Pacific FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 30%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Pacific FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.82 PPG, Pacific FC 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.