Cavalry FC 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Pacific FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 56% | Pacific FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.65 xG and Pacific FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.021 / defence 0.959 | Pacific FC attack 1.043 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.140. Data: 30 Cavalry FC games / 30 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 24% | Pacific FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Pacific FC 3.85. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 50% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 24% | Pacific FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Cavalry FC 1.65 / Pacific FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.021 / def 0.959 | Pacific FC attack 1.043 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pacific FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 49% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.08
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.14
Pacific FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.14 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 31W 13D 17L from 61 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 20L across 61 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.74 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 21W 4D 6L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 13W 6D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 55%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cavalry FC) and 48% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 48% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cavalry FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 2, as Cavalry FC and Pacific FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.65 xG and Pacific FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Pacific FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 24% | Pacific FC 26%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 56%, Pacific FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG, Pacific FC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.