Cavalry FC 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Elimination Final sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 54% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and Pacific FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.260 / defence 0.713 | Pacific FC attack 1.143 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.312. Cavalry FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Pacific FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Elimination Final | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Cavalry FC 1.83 / Pacific FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.260 / def 0.713 | Pacific FC attack 1.143 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pacific FC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Elimination Final fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 55% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.26x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.37
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.07
Pacific FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 30W 13D 16L from 59 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 19L across 59 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.75 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 20W 4D 6L from 30 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 30W 13D 16L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 25W 15D 19L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 53%, Pacific FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cavalry FC) and 47% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 47% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 47% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 2-1 at ATCO Field, Elimination Final, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and Pacific FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.71 against Pacific FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 22%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 54%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.75 PPG, Pacific FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.