Cavalry FC 2-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Grand Final sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Forge away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Cavalry FC) versus 1.80 (Forge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Forge in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cavalry FC, 1 for Forge and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 65% versus Forge 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | Forge 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.37 xG and Forge 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.998 | Forge attack 0.943 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.134. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 30% | Forge 28%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Forge 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 70% | Forge 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Grand Final | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 30% | Forge 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Cavalry FC 1.37 / Forge 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / def 0.998 | Forge attack 0.943 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Forge xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Grand Final fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 42% chance of winning, Forge a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Record (2 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 0 | Forge 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Forge (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.03) and Forge's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.28
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Forge xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Forge, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 30W 19D 11L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 17L across 60 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.82 PPG, Forge on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 16W 10D 3L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 12W 6D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 30W 19D 11L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Forge away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 66%, Forge 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cavalry FC) and 52% (Forge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Forge in 38%; Forge in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 38% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cavalry FC's matches and 52% of Forge's.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Forge in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Forge 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 2-1 at ATCO Field, Grand Final, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.37 xG and Forge 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Forge attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 30% | Forge 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.82 PPG, Forge 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.