Cavalry FC 0-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Thursday 13 July 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Atlético Ottawa (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Atlético Ottawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Atlético Ottawa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 51% | Atlético Ottawa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.196 / defence 0.924 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.269 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.269. Atlético Ottawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Cavalry FC games / 41 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Atlético Ottawa 3.57. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Atlético Ottawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Jul 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Cavalry FC 2.00 / Atlético Ottawa 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.196 / def 0.924 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.269 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Atlético Ottawa xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 13 July 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 0 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 49% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.20) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.27x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
49%
2.03
22%
4.49
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.49
1.49
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
4%
25.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.49 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 12D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (17W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.51 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 13W 4D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.71 points per game from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 57%, Atlético Ottawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cavalry FC) and 48% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 0-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.49 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 51%, Atlético Ottawa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.60 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.