Atlético Ottawa 0-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at TD Place Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Atlético Ottawa. A 0.50 PPG lead over Valour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atlético Ottawa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 51% versus Valour 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atlético Ottawa 42% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.37 xG and Valour 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.981 / defence 0.858 | Valour attack 0.767 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.355. Data: 53 Atlético Ottawa games / 53 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 47% | Draw 29% | Valour 24%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 4.17. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Valour 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 47% | Draw 29% | Valour 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.37 / Valour 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.981 / def 0.858 | Valour attack 0.767 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Valour xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 1 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 47% chance of winning, Valour a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Record (1 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Valour (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.98x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.77x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.42
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.26
0.89
Valour xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.89 for Valour, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 21W 17D 15L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 15W 15D 23L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.13 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L).
On the road, Valour have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 17D 15L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Valour have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.35 PPG; Valour away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valour in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, Valour 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Atlético Ottawa) and 50% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 35% of games; Valour in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 62% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 50% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Valour in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.37 xG and Valour 0.89 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Valour attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 47% | Draw 29% | Valour 24%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 42%, Valour 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG, Valour 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.