Atlético Ottawa 0-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valour at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at IG Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 July 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Atlético Ottawa have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valour have collected 2.40 PPG across 5 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Valour have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Valour are 1.20 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Valour in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Atlético Ottawa 20% | Valour 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atlético Ottawa 20% | Valour 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 0.82 xG and Valour 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.809 / defence 1.586 | Valour attack 1.032 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 0.830. Data: 5 Atlético Ottawa games / 5 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 29% | Valour 49%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 2.04. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 20% | Valour 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 29% | Valour 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Atlético Ottawa 0.82 / Valour 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.809 / def 1.586 | Valour attack 1.032 / def 1.141 | league avg home 0.883 / away 0.830 • Poisson stance: Valour (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Valour xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 15 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 1 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 22% chance of winning, Valour a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Valour (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.81x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.03x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
22%
4.60
29%
3.40
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.17
1.36
Valour xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.36 for Valour, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valour's form line: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Valour, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Valour in 20%.
Defensively: Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Valour in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Early Season
Valour
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Valour have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Valour in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Atlético Ottawa) and 20% (Valour) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Atlético Ottawa and 20% for Valour.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valour in 80%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 20% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 20% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Valour in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valour edge out Atlético Ottawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 0.82 xG and Valour 1.36 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.81 / defence 1.59 against Valour attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 29% | Valour 49%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 20%, Valour 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Atlético Ottawa managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.