Atlético Ottawa 0-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atlético Ottawa face FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TD Place Stadium this season.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Atlético Ottawa's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC Edmonton's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Edmonton in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Atlético Ottawa have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with FC Edmonton managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Atlético Ottawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 50% versus FC Edmonton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 42% | FC Edmonton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.70 xG and FC Edmonton 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.839 / defence 1.039 | FC Edmonton attack 0.880 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.288. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Atlético Ottawa games / 50 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 26%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | FC Edmonton 3.85. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 60% | FC Edmonton 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.70 / FC Edmonton 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.839 / def 1.039 | FC Edmonton attack 0.880 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Edmonton xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 50% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
Record (6 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 4W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.84) and FC Edmonton's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.88x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.17
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.87
1.18
FC Edmonton xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
20.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.18 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa's recent record stands at 17W 14D 19L from 50 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 25L across 50 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atlético Ottawa by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atlético Ottawa have managed 8W 9D 8L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 1W 9D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 9W 16D 25L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or FC Edmonton away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.32 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2022, when Atlético Ottawa 0-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 56%, FC Edmonton 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atlético Ottawa) and 56% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 72% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 56% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.70 xG and FC Edmonton 1.18 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC Edmonton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against FC Edmonton attack 0.88 / defence 1.45, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 26%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 42%, FC Edmonton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.