Vitoria 0-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitoria at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Vitoria welcome Corinthians to Barradao. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vitoria have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitoria have posted 6W 2D 2L at Barradao — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Barradao. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Vitoria) versus 1.40 (Corinthians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Corinthians, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Vitoria.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Corinthians winning.
It is worth noting that Corinthians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Vitoria trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Corinthians trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 50% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 45% | Corinthians 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.35 xG and Corinthians 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 1.016 / defence 0.699 | Corinthians attack 0.861 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.033. Vitoria's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Vitoria games / 49 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 54% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 16%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Corinthians 6.25. Vitoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Corinthians's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 20% | Corinthians 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 54% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Vitoria 1.35 / Corinthians 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 1.016 / def 0.699 | Corinthians attack 0.861 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Corinthians xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Corinthians kick off?
Vitoria vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Corinthians?
Vitoria 0 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Vitoria vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Corinthians part of?
Vitoria vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 54% chance of winning, Corinthians a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Vitoria and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Corinthians?
Record (4 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Corinthians 3W.
What form are Vitoria and Corinthians in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitoria's attack rating (1.02) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
54%
1.86
30%
3.34
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Vitoria xG
Total xG
1.97
0.62
Corinthians xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.62 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitoria's recent record stands at 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 27L across 76 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitoria on 1.21 PPG, Corinthians on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 17W 9D 12L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 9W 8D 21L across 38 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitoria are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Corinthians away?
Vitoria's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.58 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vitoria's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitoria
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Corinthians?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 0, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Vitoria 0-0 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 47%, Corinthians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vitoria) and 42% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Corinthians in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vitoria's recent matches and 45% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vitoria's recent games and 42% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Corinthians tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Barradao, Regular Season - 12, as Vitoria and Corinthians drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.35 xG and Corinthians 0.62 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitoria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 1.02 / defence 0.70 against Corinthians attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 54% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 16%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 45%, Corinthians 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.21 PPG, Corinthians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.