Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Palmeiras (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vasco DA Gama face Palmeiras.

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Analysis

Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio São Januário to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 22:30 UTC.

Current Form

Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Vasco DA Gama's home record at Estádio São Januário: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.

Palmeiras (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 0.60 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vasco DA Gama have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Palmeiras in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Palmeiras have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Vasco DA Gama's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Palmeiras winning.

It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Vasco DA Gama — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Palmeiras — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Palmeiras 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.28 xG and Palmeiras 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.909 / defence 1.090 | Palmeiras attack 1.338 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.150. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Vasco DA Gama games / 42 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 29% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.

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