Vasco DA Gama 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.15 xG and Palmeiras 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.077 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 0.925. Data: 1 Vasco DA Gama games / 39 Palmeiras games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 36%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.15 / Palmeiras 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.077 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.415 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Palmeiras xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 36% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Palmeiras away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.86x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.08x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.52
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
Palmeiras xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.15 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 2, as Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.15 xG and Palmeiras 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 36%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.