Sport Recife 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host Santos at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sport Recife — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sport Recife at 1.10 PPG versus Santos's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for Santos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 64% of games.
Santos in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 20% | Santos 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 20% | Santos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.95 xG and Santos 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.661 / defence 0.894 | Santos attack 0.749 / defence 1.563. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.050. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.563 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Sport Recife games / 25 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 38% | Draw 37% | Santos 24%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Santos 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Santos's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 20% | Santos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 38% | Draw 37% | Santos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Sport Recife 0.95 / Santos 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.661 / def 0.894 | Santos attack 0.749 / def 1.563 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Santos xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Santos kick off?
Sport Recife vs Santos kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Santos?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Sport Recife vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Santos part of?
Sport Recife vs Santos is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 38% chance of winning, Santos a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sport Recife and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Santos?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Santos 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Santos in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Santos (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
38%
2.61
37%
2.68
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.66
0.70
Santos xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.70 for Santos, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 1.00 PPG, Santos on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sport Recife's home form reads 3W 4D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.48 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Santos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Santos in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Santos have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Santos away?
Sport Recife's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.00 PPG; Santos away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Santos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Santos runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Santos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Santos specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Santos?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Santos 3-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 15% BTTS, Santos 54%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Sport Recife and 54% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 69% of games; Santos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 54% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Sport Recife's recent games and 54% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Santos tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Santos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 27, as Sport Recife and Santos drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.95 xG and Santos 0.70 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.66 / defence 0.89 against Santos attack 0.75 / defence 1.56, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 38% | Draw 37% | Santos 24%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 20%, Santos 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 1.00 PPG, Santos 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.