Sport Recife 0-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host RB Bragantino at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Sport Recife have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Bragantino — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 29% versus RB Bragantino 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 21% | RB Bragantino 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.64 xG and RB Bragantino 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.642 / defence 1.013 | RB Bragantino attack 1.165 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 0.890 / away 1.050. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Sport Recife games / 14 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 19% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 51%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 1.96. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 17% | RB Bragantino 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 19% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Sport Recife 0.64 / RB Bragantino 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.642 / def 1.013 | RB Bragantino attack 1.165 / def 1.122 | league avg home 0.890 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino part of?
Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 19% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sport Recife and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and RB Bragantino in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.64x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
19%
5.21
30%
3.33
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.88
1.24
RB Bragantino xG
5.21
19%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
6%
17.97
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 18.9 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.24 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 1L across 14 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.79 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; RB Bragantino in 64%.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 7W 6D 1L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.83 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2021, when RB Bragantino won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sport Recife's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and RB Bragantino?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when RB Bragantino 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 17%, RB Bragantino 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Sport Recife) and 67% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 67% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sport Recife's recent games and 67% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 15, as Sport Recife and RB Bragantino drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.64 xG and RB Bragantino 1.24 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Bragantino landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against RB Bragantino attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 19% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 51%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 21%, RB Bragantino 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.