Sport Recife 0-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host Juventude at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 5 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Sport Recife have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventude — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Juventude away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sport Recife at 0.70 PPG versus Juventude's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sport Recife have won 1, Juventude 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Juventude in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 50% versus Juventude 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 47% | Juventude 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.58 xG and Juventude 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.828 / defence 1.373 | Juventude attack 0.795 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 0.956. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sport Recife games / 69 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 50% | Draw 25% | Juventude 25%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Juventude 4.00. Sport Recife hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 70% | Juventude 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 50% | Draw 25% | Juventude 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Sport Recife 1.58 / Juventude 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.828 / def 1.373 | Juventude attack 0.795 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.403 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Juventude kick off?
Sport Recife vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 5 November 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Sport Recife 0 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Sport Recife vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Juventude part of?
Sport Recife vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 50% chance of winning, Juventude a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sport Recife and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Sport Recife 1W | Draws 0 | Juventude 2W.
What form are Sport Recife and Juventude in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.83) and Juventude's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.98
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.63
1.04
Juventude xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.04 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife come into this having played 30 games, going 2W 11D 17L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.77 PPG from 30 outings (6W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 0.57 PPG, Juventude on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sport Recife's home form reads 1W 7D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.36 points per game from 14 outings (1W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.73 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Juventude in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 2W 11D 17L in their last 30 games (0.57 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Juventude away?
Sport Recife's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.71 PPG; Juventude away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Juventude runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventude go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sport Recife
0
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 1, Juventude have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2025, when Sport Recife 0-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 57%, Juventude 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sport Recife) and 64% (Juventude). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife have failed to score in 36% of games; Juventude in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 36% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sport Recife's matches and 64% of Juventude's.
Do Sport Recife and Juventude tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Juventude in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Sport Recife 0-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.58 xG and Juventude 1.04 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Juventude outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.83 / defence 1.37 against Juventude attack 0.80 / defence 1.36, drawn from 30/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 50% | Draw 25% | Juventude 25%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Juventude 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventude's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.57 PPG, Juventude 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.