Sao Paulo 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 38% versus Palmeiras 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 23% | Palmeiras 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.81 xG and Palmeiras 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.836 / defence 1.099 | Palmeiras attack 1.145 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 0.910 / away 1.086. Data: 13 Sao Paulo games / 13 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 22% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 50%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 2.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 50% | Palmeiras 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 22% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Sao Paulo 0.81 / Palmeiras 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.836 / def 1.099 | Palmeiras attack 1.145 / def 1.058 | league avg home 0.910 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Palmeiras xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 22% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 0.84x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
22%
4.53
28%
3.59
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.17
1.37
Palmeiras xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.6 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.37 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 2.38 PPG from 13 outings (10W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.92 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 10W 1D 2L in their last 13 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.00 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 50%, Palmeiras 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sao Paulo) and 67% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 33% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 67% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 14, as Sao Paulo and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.81 xG and Palmeiras 1.37 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Palmeiras attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 22% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 50%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 23%, Palmeiras 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.