Sao Paulo 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sao Paulo face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Palmeiras travel to MorumBIS to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 April 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo at MorumBIS this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MorumBIS. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 0–5 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 51% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 46% | Palmeiras 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.12 xG and Palmeiras 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.966 / defence 1.016 | Palmeiras attack 1.019 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.087. Data: 41 Sao Paulo games / 41 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 30% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Apr 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Sao Paulo 1.12 / Palmeiras 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.966 / def 1.016 | Palmeiras attack 1.019 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 35% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.12
Palmeiras xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.12 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 26D 23L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.99 PPG from 76 outings (43W 22D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 21W 9D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.68 points per game from 38 outings (16W 16D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.71 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 27W 26D 23L in their last 76 games (1.41 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.89 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 45%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sao Paulo) and 45% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 45% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 4, as Sao Paulo and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.12 xG and Palmeiras 1.12 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Palmeiras attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 46%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.