Sao Paulo 0-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sao Paulo and Mirassol meet at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sao Paulo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Do MorumBIS this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estadio Do MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.28 xG and Mirassol 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.872 / defence 0.984 | Mirassol attack 0.980 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 0.829. Data: 47 Sao Paulo games / 9 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 21%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Mirassol 4.76. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sao Paulo 1.28 / Mirassol 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.872 / def 0.984 | Mirassol attack 0.980 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.399 / away 0.829 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Mirassol xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Mirassol kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Mirassol?
Sao Paulo 0 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Mirassol part of?
Sao Paulo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 46% chance of winning, Mirassol a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sao Paulo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Mirassol in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sao Paulo home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.87) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.98x) against Sao Paulo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
46%
2.18
33%
3.06
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.08
0.80
Mirassol xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.80 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 3-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sao Paulo 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Sao Paulo 0-2 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.28 xG and Mirassol 0.80 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 46% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 21%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Mirassol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.