Sao Paulo 2-1 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sao Paulo and Criciuma meet at MorumBIS in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at MorumBIS, Sao Paulo have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MorumBIS. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.30 xG and Criciuma 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.862 / defence 0.860 | Criciuma attack 1.115 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.086. Data: 49 Sao Paulo games / 9 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 41% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 28%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Criciuma 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 41% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sao Paulo 1.30 / Criciuma 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.862 / def 0.860 | Criciuma attack 1.115 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Criciuma xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Criciuma kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Criciuma kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?
Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Criciuma.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Criciuma part of?
Sao Paulo vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 41% chance of winning, Criciuma a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sao Paulo and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Criciuma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Criciuma in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Sao Paulo home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (1.11x) against Sao Paulo's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 49/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.26
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Criciuma xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.04 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
1
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Criciuma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Criciuma?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Criciuma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Criciuma 2-1 at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.30 xG and Criciuma 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Criciuma attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 41% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 28%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.