Santos 2-3 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 44%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santos vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estadio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Santos's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Fluminense (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 0.70 PPG clear of Santos in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Fluminense have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Santos's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Fluminense have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 47% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | Fluminense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.39 xG and Fluminense 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.971 / defence 0.906 | Fluminense attack 1.107 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.030. Data: 49 Santos games / 49 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 40% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Santos 1.39 / Fluminense 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.971 / def 0.906 | Fluminense attack 1.107 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Santos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Fluminense kick off?
Santos vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos 2 - 3 Fluminense.
Where is Santos vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Fluminense part of?
Santos vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santos and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
Record (8 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 3 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are Santos and Fluminense in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.11x) against Santos's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.45
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Santos xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Fluminense xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Santos and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Santos and 1.03 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santos's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 12L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santos have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Fluminense away?
Santos's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.58 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Santos or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fluminense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Fluminense have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 42%, Fluminense 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Santos) and 37% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; Santos have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Santos's recent matches and 42% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Santos's recent games and 37% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Santos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Santos 2-3 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.39 xG and Fluminense 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 44% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 27%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Fluminense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.