Santos 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Santos welcome Flamengo to Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estádio Urbano Caldeira — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Santos) versus 1.30 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Santos, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Santos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 38% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 35% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.54 xG and Flamengo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.100 / defence 0.954 | Flamengo attack 0.971 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 0.968. Data: 52 Santos games / 52 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 51% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 21%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 4.76. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santos 50% | Flamengo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 51% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Santos 1.54 / Flamengo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.100 / def 0.954 | Flamengo attack 0.971 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.313 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Santos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Flamengo xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Flamengo kick off?
Santos vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Santos 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Santos vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Flamengo part of?
Santos vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 51% chance of winning, Flamengo a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Santos and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Santos and Flamengo in?
Santos (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santos's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.62
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Santos xG
Total xG
2.44
0.90
Flamengo xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Santos and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Santos and 0.90 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Santos have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 21D 15L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 26W 11D 15L from 52 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.33 PPG, Flamengo on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 9W 9D 8L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.63 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 16W 21D 15L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Flamengo away?
Santos's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.73 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Santos or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Santos
0
Draws
6
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Flamengo have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 31%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Santos) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Santos's recent matches and 62% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Santos's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Flamengo tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Santos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Santos 1-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.54 xG and Flamengo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Flamengo attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 51% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 21%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Flamengo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 35%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.33 PPG, Flamengo 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.