Santos 0-4 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Santos welcome Flamengo to Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 4W 4D 1L at Estádio Urbano Caldeira — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Santos's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Santos in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 40% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 33% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.94 xG and Flamengo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.043 / defence 0.942 | Flamengo attack 1.238 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 0.873 / away 1.080. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Santos games / 15 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43%. Fair-value odds: Santos 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 33% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Santos 0.94 / Flamengo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.043 / def 0.942 | Flamengo attack 1.238 / def 1.037 | league avg home 0.873 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Flamengo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Flamengo kick off?
Santos vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Santos 0 - 4 Flamengo.
Where is Santos vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Flamengo part of?
Santos vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 28% chance of winning, Flamengo a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Santos and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Flamengo in?
Santos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santos's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
28%
3.61
29%
3.46
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Santos xG
Total xG
2.20
1.26
Flamengo xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Santos and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Santos and 1.26 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Santos have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 7D 4L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 9W 1D 5L from 15 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Santos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.87 scored and 1.07 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Santos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 9W 1D 5L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.50 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Santos or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Santos
0
Draws
6
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Flamengo have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 33%, Flamengo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Santos) and 50% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Flamengo in 33%; Santos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santos's recent matches and 50% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santos's recent games and 50% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Flamengo tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Santos 0-4 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.94 xG and Flamengo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Santos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 33%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.