RB Bragantino 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host Vasco DA Gama at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's home record at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, RB Bragantino have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 35% versus Vasco DA Gama 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 35% | Vasco DA Gama 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.80 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.008 / defence 0.798 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.917 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.972. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. RB Bragantino's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 RB Bragantino games / 17 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 14%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Vasco DA Gama 7.14. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 20% | Vasco DA Gama 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Aug 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 43% | xG RB Bragantino 1.80 / Vasco DA Gama 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.008 / def 0.798 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.917 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Vasco DA Gama xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 63% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.32
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.51
0.71
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
2%
44.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.71 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 7W 7D 3L from 17 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 11L across 17 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.88 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.62 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Vasco DA Gama won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-3 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 12%, Vasco DA Gama 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; RB Bragantino have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 75% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 50% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 19, as RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.80 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.71 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.92 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 63% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 14%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 35%, Vasco DA Gama 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.