RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.20 PPG, Palmeiras 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, RB Bragantino have won 2, Palmeiras 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2025, ended 1–5 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 60% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 54% | Palmeiras 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.37 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.161 / defence 1.108 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.021. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 RB Bragantino games / 50 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG RB Bragantino 1.37 / Palmeiras 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.161 / def 1.108 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palmeiras xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras part of?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 37% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RB Bragantino and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 3 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.16x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
37%
2.72
25%
3.93
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Palmeiras xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.40 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 24W 20D 32L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Venue Form
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.63 PPG from 38 outings (17W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 21W 7D 10L from 38 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.63 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 58%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Palmeiras tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.37 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.