RB Bragantino vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to RB Bragantino versus Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Bragantino have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 1D 4L at — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.20 for Mirassol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 52% versus Mirassol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Mirassol 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.36 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.885 / defence 0.879 | Mirassol attack 0.800 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 62 RB Bragantino games / 63 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 47% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Mirassol 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 40% | Mirassol 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 47% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG RB Bragantino 1.36 / Mirassol 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.885 / def 0.879 | Mirassol attack 0.800 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Mirassol xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Mirassol kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol is scheduled to kick off at 22:30 on Wednesday 7 October 2026.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol part of?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 47% chance of winning, Mirassol a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both RB Bragantino and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Mirassol in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.89) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.80x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
47%
2.13
33%
3.03
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.18
0.82
Mirassol xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.82 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 11D 27L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.48 PPG from 62 outings (24W 20D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.48 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
RB Bragantino's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Mirassol in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 11D 27L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 18L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Mirassol away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.67 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 43%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Bragantino) and 33% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mirassol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 33% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Mirassol tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.