RB Bragantino 3-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 61% versus Fortaleza EC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 48% | Fortaleza EC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.21 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.017 / defence 1.280 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.973 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 0.928. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 RB Bragantino games / 31 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 34%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 50% | Fortaleza EC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG RB Bragantino 1.21 / Fortaleza EC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.017 / def 1.280 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.973 / def 1.226 | league avg home 0.968 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fortaleza EC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
RB Bragantino 3 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 37% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.02) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.97x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.49
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.36
1.16
Fortaleza EC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.16 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 11W 13D 7L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 14W 7D 10L from 31 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.58 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (5W 8D 3L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.29 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 11W 13D 7L in their last 31 games (1.48 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 14W 7D 10L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fortaleza EC away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.44 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.31 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
6
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 62%, Fortaleza EC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of RB Bragantino's games and 56% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Fortaleza EC 3-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.21 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortaleza EC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 34%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 48%, Fortaleza EC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.48 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.