Palmeiras 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Juventude travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 22:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Juventude — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventude have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.30 PPG, Juventude 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palmeiras register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Juventude in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1, Juventude 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 3–0 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Juventude in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 52% versus Juventude 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 57% | Juventude 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.33 xG and Juventude 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.233 / defence 1.445 | Juventude attack 0.757 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 0.886 / away 1.037. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Palmeiras games / 22 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 30% | Juventude 30%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Juventude 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 70% | Juventude 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 30% | Juventude 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Palmeiras 1.33 / Juventude 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.233 / def 1.445 | Juventude attack 0.757 / def 1.218 | league avg home 0.886 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Juventude xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Juventude kick off?
Palmeiras vs Juventude kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Palmeiras vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Juventude part of?
Palmeiras vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 40% chance of winning, Juventude a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palmeiras and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Juventude (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.23x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.29
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.47
1.14
Juventude xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.14 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 21 games, going 12W 2D 7L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 6W 0D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 12W 2D 7L in their last 21 games (1.81 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Juventude away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juventude in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 7, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 67%, Juventude 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Palmeiras) and 22% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Juventude in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Palmeiras's games and 56% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Palmeiras's recent games and 22% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Juventude tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Juventude in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Juventude finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.33 xG and Juventude 1.14 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 1.45 against Juventude attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 40% | Draw 30% | Juventude 30%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 57%, Juventude 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.