Palmeiras 4-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 5 as Palmeiras welcome Gremio to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 May 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gremio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gremio away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.70 (Gremio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Gremio 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Gremio trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Gremio 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 50% | Gremio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.143 / defence 0.892 | Gremio attack 0.808 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.230. Data: 42 Palmeiras games / 4 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 57% | Draw 24% | Gremio 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Gremio 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Gremio 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 11 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 57% | Draw 24% | Gremio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Palmeiras 1.75 / Gremio 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.143 / def 0.892 | Gremio attack 0.808 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gremio xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Gremio kick off?
Palmeiras vs Gremio kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 11 May 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras 4 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Palmeiras vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Gremio part of?
Palmeiras vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 57% chance of winning, Gremio a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palmeiras and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.14x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.12
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.64
0.89
Gremio xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
3%
31.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.89 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 23W 12D 3L from 38 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 19L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. Gremio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gremio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 4W 1D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 23W 12D 3L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Gremio have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Gremio away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.26 PPG; Gremio away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gremio in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Gremio runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Gremio 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 37% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Gremio in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 42% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 37% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Gremio tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Gremio 4-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Gremio attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 57% | Draw 24% | Gremio 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 50%, Gremio 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.