Palmeiras 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Fluminense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.70 PPG, Fluminense 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 0, Fluminense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 53% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 55% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.76 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.238 / defence 1.145 | Fluminense attack 1.067 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 0.922. Data: 42 Palmeiras games / 42 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 52% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Fluminense 4.17. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 60% | Fluminense 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 52% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Palmeiras 1.76 / Fluminense 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.238 / def 1.145 | Fluminense attack 1.067 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.362 / away 0.922 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fluminense xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 52% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.24x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.27
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.89
1.13
Fluminense xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
24.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.13 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 20W 6D 12L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 1.74 PPG, Fluminense on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.89 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 63%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Fluminense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Fluminense finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.76 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 1.15 against Fluminense attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 52% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 24%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 55%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.74 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.