Palmeiras 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Flamengo meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Flamengo have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 47% versus Flamengo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 52% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.49 xG and Flamengo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.251 / defence 0.929 | Flamengo attack 1.139 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 0.919. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Palmeiras games / 60 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 25%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 4.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 30% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 1.49 / Flamengo 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.251 / def 0.929 | Flamengo attack 1.139 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.347 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Flamengo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Flamengo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Flamengo part of?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 49% chance of winning, Flamengo a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.25) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.14x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.83
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.46
0.97
Flamengo xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.97 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 34W 12D 14L from 60 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 16L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.83 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 18W 5D 7L from 30 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 games (1.90 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Flamengo away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.97 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
5
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 53%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palmeiras) and 57% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Palmeiras's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Palmeiras's matches and 57% of Flamengo's.
Do Palmeiras and Flamengo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 23, as Palmeiras and Flamengo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.49 xG and Flamengo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 49% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 25%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 52%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.90 PPG, Flamengo 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.