Palmeiras 5-0 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Palmeiras welcome Criciuma to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Criciuma have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palmeiras, 0 for Criciuma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Criciuma in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 33% versus Criciuma 79%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 38% | Criciuma 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.13 xG and Criciuma 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.316 / defence 0.823 | Criciuma attack 0.977 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.042. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Palmeiras games / 24 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 20% | Criciuma 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Criciuma 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Criciuma 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 67% | Draw 20% | Criciuma 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Palmeiras 2.13 / Criciuma 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.316 / def 0.823 | Criciuma attack 0.977 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Criciuma xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Criciuma kick off?
Palmeiras vs Criciuma kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Criciuma?
Palmeiras 5 - 0 Criciuma.
Where is Palmeiras vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Criciuma part of?
Palmeiras vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 67% chance of winning, Criciuma a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palmeiras and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Criciuma 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Criciuma in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.32x the league average against Criciuma's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Criciuma's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.09
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.97
0.84
Criciuma xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
2%
63.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.84 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Criciuma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 5D 6L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Criciuma sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Criciuma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 9W 0D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Palmeiras are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Criciuma have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.33 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 79%.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 13W 5D 6L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Criciuma away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.45 PPG; Criciuma away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Criciuma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Criciuma in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Palmeiras
0
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 2, Criciuma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Criciuma?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 36%, Criciuma 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Palmeiras and 82% for Criciuma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Palmeiras's games and 82% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Palmeiras's matches and 82% of Criciuma's.
Do Palmeiras and Criciuma tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Criciuma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Criciuma 5-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.13 xG and Criciuma 0.84 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Criciuma landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Criciuma attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 67% | Draw 20% | Criciuma 13%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 38%, Criciuma 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Criciuma's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.