Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Bahia at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 6W 1D 3L at Allianz Parque — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.60 PPG, Bahia 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bahia in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 48% versus Bahia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 45% | Bahia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.24 xG and Bahia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.123 / defence 0.922 | Bahia attack 1.051 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.066. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Palmeiras games / 29 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 20% | Bahia 16%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Bahia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 40% | Bahia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 20% | Bahia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Palmeiras 2.24 / Bahia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.123 / def 0.922 | Bahia attack 1.051 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bahia xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Bahia kick off?
Palmeiras vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Palmeiras vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Bahia part of?
Palmeiras vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 64% chance of winning, Bahia a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.12) and Bahia's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.90
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.27
1.03
Bahia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
59.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.03 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 14W 8D 7L from 29 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 13L across 29 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 9W 2D 3L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 14W 8D 7L in their last 29 games (1.72 PPG), while Bahia have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Bahia away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.07 PPG; Bahia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bahia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Bahia runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 57%, Bahia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palmeiras) and 43% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 29% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palmeiras's recent games and 43% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Bahia tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bahia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Bahia 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.24 xG and Bahia 1.03 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Bahia attack 1.05 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 64% | Draw 20% | Bahia 16%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 45%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.