Mirassol 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mirassol at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Vasco DA Gama at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 January 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Mirassol have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mirassol have won 2, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mirassol trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Vasco DA Gama 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Vasco DA Gama 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.07 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.225 / defence 0.944 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.000 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.056. Data: 38 Mirassol games / 38 Vasco DA Gama games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 21% | Vasco DA Gama 17%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Vasco DA Gama 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 60% | Vasco DA Gama 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jan 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 21% | Vasco DA Gama 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Mirassol 2.07 / Vasco DA Gama 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.225 / def 0.944 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.000 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vasco DA Gama xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 29 January 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 62% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 2W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.23) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.87
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.07
1.00
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
2%
45.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.00 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mirassol's recent record stands at 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 19L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mirassol by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 12W 7D 0L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 5W 2D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 13W 6D 19L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Vasco DA Gama 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Mirassol and 63% for Vasco DA Gama. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 42% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Mirassol's matches and 63% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.07 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.00 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 62% | Draw 21% | Vasco DA Gama 17%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Vasco DA Gama 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.