Mirassol 5-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 5W 4D 0L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bahia have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mirassol, 0 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 68% versus Bahia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 42% | Bahia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.141 / defence 1.060 | Bahia attack 0.957 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.091. Data: 19 Mirassol games / 57 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 40% | Draw 28% | Bahia 32%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 78% | Bahia 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 40% | Draw 28% | Bahia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Mirassol 1.26 / Bahia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.141 / def 1.060 | Bahia attack 0.957 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bahia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Bahia kick off?
Mirassol vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Bahia?
Mirassol 5 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Mirassol vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Bahia part of?
Mirassol vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 40% chance of winning, Bahia a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mirassol and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Bahia in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Bahia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.14) and Bahia's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.96x) against Mirassol's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.57
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.37
1.11
Bahia xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.11 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 8W 8D 3L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 10W 6D 3L from 19 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Mirassol against 1.89 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.42 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bahia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Bahia in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Bahia have gone 10W 6D 3L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Bahia away?
Mirassol's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.11 PPG; Bahia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bahia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 5-1 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Bahia?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Mirassol 1-2 Bahia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 78%, Bahia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mirassol) and 44% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 33%; Bahia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Mirassol's games and 33% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mirassol's recent games and 44% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Bahia tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bahia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Bahia 5-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Bahia attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 40% | Draw 28% | Bahia 32%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.68 PPG, Bahia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.