Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and RB Bragantino meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Bragantino (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Juventude against 1.20 for RB Bragantino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventude, 0 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Juventude winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 53% versus RB Bragantino 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 35% | RB Bragantino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.18 xG and RB Bragantino 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.875 / defence 1.039 | RB Bragantino attack 0.994 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 0.916. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Juventude games / 35 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 60% | RB Bragantino 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventude 1.18 / RB Bragantino 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.875 / def 1.039 | RB Bragantino attack 0.994 / def 1.371 | league avg home 0.981 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Juventude (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RB Bragantino xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Juventude vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Juventude 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Juventude vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs RB Bragantino part of?
Juventude vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 41% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Juventude and RB Bragantino in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.88x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.99x) against Juventude's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.29
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.12
0.95
RB Bragantino xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Juventude and 0.95 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 9W 13D 12L from 34 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 8L across 34 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Juventude against 1.47 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 7W 6D 3L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 6W 5D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.41 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 9W 13D 12L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 12W 14D 8L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or RB Bragantino away?
Juventude's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.69 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and RB Bragantino?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 44%, RB Bragantino 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Juventude) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juventude's recent matches and 56% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.18 xG and RB Bragantino 0.95 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against RB Bragantino attack 0.99 / defence 1.37, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 35%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.18 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.