Juventude 2-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.68 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.047 / defence 1.007 | Mirassol attack 0.919 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 0.887. Data: 42 Juventude games / 4 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 55% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 15%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Mirassol 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Juventude (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 55% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Juventude 1.68 / Mirassol 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.047 / def 1.007 | Mirassol attack 0.919 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.449 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: Juventude (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Mirassol xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Mirassol kick off?
Juventude vs Mirassol kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Mirassol?
Juventude 2 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Juventude vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Mirassol part of?
Juventude vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 55% chance of winning, Mirassol a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Mirassol in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Juventude home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventude's attack at 1.05x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.92x) against Juventude's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.30
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.50
0.82
Mirassol xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
35.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Juventude and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Juventude and 0.82 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Mirassol?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Mirassol 2-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Juventude and Mirassol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 5, as Juventude and Mirassol drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.68 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mirassol outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Mirassol attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 55% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 15%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.