Juventude 2-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Juventude take on Internacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Internacional at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Internacional away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Internacional — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventude, 1 for Internacional and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Internacional winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 55% versus Internacional 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 38% | Internacional 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.77 xG and Internacional 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.819 / defence 1.079 | Internacional attack 0.762 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.918. Data: 29 Juventude games / 30 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 32% | Draw 37% | Internacional 31%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Internacional 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 60% | Internacional 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 32% | Draw 37% | Internacional 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Juventude 0.77 / Internacional 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.819 / def 1.079 | Internacional attack 0.762 / def 0.991 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Internacional xG
29%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Internacional kick off?
Juventude vs Internacional kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 11 November 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Juventude 2 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Juventude vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Internacional part of?
Juventude vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 32% chance of winning, Internacional a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Juventude and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Juventude and Internacional in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.82) and Internacional's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
37%
2.73
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.52
0.76
Internacional xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.50
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 16.4 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Juventude and 0.76 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 6W 12D 11L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 11W 10D 8L from 29 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.24 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Internacional in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while Internacional have gone 11W 10D 8L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Internacional away?
Juventude's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.40 PPG; Internacional away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Juventude or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Internacional in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
5
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Internacional have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 40%, Internacional 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Juventude and 33% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Internacional in 40%; Juventude have failed to score in 27% of games; Internacional in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Juventude's recent matches and 40% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 33% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Internacional tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Internacional in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Internacional 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Internacional 2-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.77 xG and Internacional 0.76 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Internacional attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 32% | Draw 37% | Internacional 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 38%, Internacional 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Juventude winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.