Juventude 2-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 40%, yet in-form Juventude provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Juventude have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Gremio (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Gremio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Juventude's 1.29 PPG return is 0.89 points per game ahead of Gremio's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gremio — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Juventude 20% | Gremio 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 20% | Gremio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.96 xG and Gremio 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.722 / defence 1.277 | Gremio attack 0.820 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 1.112. Juventude's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Juventude games / 5 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 30% | Draw 30% | Gremio 40%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Gremio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juventude (1.29 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 0% | Gremio 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 30% | Draw 30% | Gremio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventude 0.96 / Gremio 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.722 / def 1.277 | Gremio attack 0.820 / def 1.389 | league avg home 0.955 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Gremio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Gremio xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Gremio kick off?
Juventude vs Gremio kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Juventude 2 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Juventude vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Gremio part of?
Juventude vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 30% chance of winning, Gremio a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Gremio in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Gremio (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.72) and Gremio's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.82x) against Juventude's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 7/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.29
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.12
1.16
Gremio xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Juventude and 1.16 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Juventude, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gremio's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Gremio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juventude are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Early Season
Gremio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Gremio in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Gremio have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Juventude or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Gremio in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Gremio 3-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Juventude) and 40% (Gremio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Juventude and 40% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Juventude have failed to score in 40% of games; Gremio in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Juventude's recent matches and 40% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Juventude's recent games and 40% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Gremio tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Gremio in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Gremio 2-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.96 xG and Gremio 1.16 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.72 / defence 1.28 against Gremio attack 0.82 / defence 1.39, drawn from 7/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 30% | Draw 30% | Gremio 40%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 20%, Gremio 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventude arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventude scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.