Juventude 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022, 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Juventude register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Flamengo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juventude, 2 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2022, ended 0–4 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 51% versus Flamengo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 40% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.95 xG and Flamengo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.757 / defence 1.229 | Flamengo attack 1.159 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.999. Juventude's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Juventude games / 74 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 25% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 48%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.08. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Juventude 60% | Flamengo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 25% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Juventude 0.95 / Flamengo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.757 / def 1.229 | Flamengo attack 1.159 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Flamengo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Flamengo kick off?
Juventude vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Juventude 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Juventude vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Flamengo part of?
Juventude vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 25% chance of winning, Flamengo a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juventude and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in?
Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.76x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
25%
3.97
27%
3.72
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.38
1.42
Flamengo xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.47
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juventude and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Juventude and 1.42 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude come into this having played 74 games, going 14W 25D 35L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.78 PPG from 74 outings (39W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Juventude's home form reads 11W 14D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.51 points per game from 37 outings (15W 11D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.70 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 14W 25D 35L in their last 74 games (0.91 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 15D 20L in their last 74 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.27 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Juventude or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Flamengo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 49%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Juventude) and 54% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Juventude's games and 62% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Juventude's recent games and 54% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Flamengo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Flamengo finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.95 xG and Flamengo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 25% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 48%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 40%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.