Juventude 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventude face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Flamengo travel to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Flamengo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Juventude's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Juventude, 4 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2025, ended 0–6 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 59% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 52% | Flamengo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.15 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.988 / defence 1.014 | Flamengo attack 1.159 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.081. Data: 59 Juventude games / 59 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 39%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 50% | Flamengo 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Juventude 1.15 / Flamengo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.988 / def 1.014 | Flamengo attack 1.159 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Flamengo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Flamengo kick off?
Juventude vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Juventude 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Juventude vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Flamengo part of?
Juventude vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 33% chance of winning, Flamengo a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Juventude 2W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 4W.
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in?
Juventude (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.99x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.64
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.42
1.27
Flamengo xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Juventude and 1.27 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 15D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.98 PPG from 59 outings (34W 15D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Juventude's home form reads 12W 7D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.75 points per game from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.80 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 34W 15D 10L in their last 59 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.54 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Juventude or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 57%, Flamengo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juventude) and 50% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Juventude's games and 61% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Flamengo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Juventude 0-2 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.15 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 52%, Flamengo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.