Juventude 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Cuiaba travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Juventude are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventude, 1 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Cuiaba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Cuiaba trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 34% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.13 xG and Cuiaba 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.998 / defence 1.054 | Cuiaba attack 0.986 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 0.898. Cuiaba's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Juventude games / 40 Cuiaba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 30%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cuiaba 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Juventude 1.13 / Cuiaba 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.998 / def 1.054 | Cuiaba attack 0.986 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.436 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Juventude (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cuiaba xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Cuiaba kick off?
Juventude vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Juventude 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Juventude vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Cuiaba part of?
Juventude vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 40% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Juventude and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.32
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Cuiaba xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Juventude and 0.93 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 10W 17D 11L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.21 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 11D 5L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Cuiaba away?
Juventude's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.74 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Juventude or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Juventude's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Juventude
3
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Cuiaba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 37%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Juventude and 32% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventude's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventude's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Juventude 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Juventude 0-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.13 xG and Cuiaba 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventude fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Cuiaba attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 30%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 34%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.21 PPG, Cuiaba 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.