Gremio 1-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 36%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Santos meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Gremio (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gremio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gremio at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Santos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Santos have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Gremio's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Santos's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Gremio 0W, Santos 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 45% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 45% | Santos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.19 xG and Santos 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Santos attack 0.990 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.061. Data: 0 Gremio games / 38 Santos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gremio 36% | Draw 28% | Santos 36%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 60% | Santos 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 36% | Draw 28% | Santos 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gremio 1.19 / Santos 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Santos attack 0.990 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Santos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Santos kick off?
Gremio vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Santos?
Gremio 1 - 0 Santos.
Where is Gremio vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Gremio vs Santos part of?
Gremio vs Santos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 36% chance of winning, Santos a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gremio and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 1 | Santos 1W.
What form are Gremio and Santos in?
Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Santos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.85) and Santos's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.99x) against Gremio's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (0/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.58
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.40
1.21
Santos xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gremio and 1.21 for Santos, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 7D 19L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. Gremio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Gremio against 1.24 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gremio's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.16 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Santos in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Santos away?
Gremio's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.58 PPG; Santos away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gremio
2
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Santos?
From 7 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Santos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Gremio 3-2 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Santos?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 26% of games; Santos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Santos tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Santos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Santos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Santos 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.19 xG and Santos 1.21 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Santos attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 36% | Draw 28% | Santos 36%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 45%, Santos 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.13 PPG, Santos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.