Gremio 3-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Juventude meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena do Grêmio — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventude (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Gremio's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gremio, 1 for Juventude and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 33% versus Juventude 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 29% | Juventude 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.33 xG and Juventude 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.983 / defence 1.206 | Juventude attack 0.788 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.037. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Gremio games / 26 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 31% | Juventude 26%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Juventude 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 40% | Juventude 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 31% | Juventude 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Gremio 1.33 / Juventude 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.983 / def 1.206 | Juventude attack 0.788 / def 1.500 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Gremio (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Juventude xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Juventude kick off?
Gremio vs Juventude kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Juventude?
Gremio 3 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Gremio vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Juventude part of?
Gremio vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 43% chance of winning, Juventude a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gremio and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Gremio and Juventude in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.79x) against Gremio's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.22
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.31
0.98
Juventude xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gremio and 0.98 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 5D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Gremio against 1.12 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gremio's home form reads 3W 5D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (1W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Juventude in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Juventude away?
Gremio's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.17 PPG; Juventude away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gremio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
2
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Juventude have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Gremio 3-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Juventude?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 42%, Juventude 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Gremio and 33% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 42% of games; Juventude in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gremio's recent matches and 67% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gremio's recent games and 33% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Juventude 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Juventude 3-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.33 xG and Juventude 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventude outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Juventude attack 0.79 / defence 1.50, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 43% | Draw 31% | Juventude 26%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 29%, Juventude 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 0.96 PPG, Juventude 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.