Gremio 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Gremio take on Internacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gremio welcome Internacional to Arena do Grêmio in Serie A (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 20 April 2025 at 02:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gremio stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Gremio have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Internacional — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Internacional are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Gremio's games and 60% of Internacional's (from Gremio's last 10 home games and Internacional's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Internacional have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Gremio.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Gremio 0–1 Internacional — a Internacional win.
Internacional have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 54% versus Internacional 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 55% | Internacional 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.05 xG and Internacional 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.950 / defence 1.253 | Internacional attack 1.015 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 0.889. Internacional bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gremio's projected output down. Gremio's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Internacional's projected output up. Data: built from Gremio's last 42 games and Internacional's last 42.
Result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 36% | Internacional 34%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.32 | Draw 2.80 | Internacional 2.93. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though recent form (Gremio's last 10 home games and Internacional's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gremio 70% (last 10 home games) | Internacional 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 36% | Internacional 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Gremio 1.05 / Internacional 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.950 / def 1.253 | Internacional attack 1.015 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.449 / away 0.889 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Internacional xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gremio vs Internacional FAQs
What time does Gremio vs Internacional kick off?
Gremio vs Internacional kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Gremio 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Gremio vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Internacional part of?
Gremio vs Internacional is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 30% chance of winning, Internacional a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gremio and Internacional will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Gremio vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 0.95x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gremio's last 42 games and Internacional's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
36%
2.80
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.18
1.13
Internacional xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gremio vs Internacional Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gremio and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Gremio and 1.13 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 33W 14D 29L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 33W 21D 22L across 76 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.49 PPG, Internacional on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 23W 4D 11L from their last 38 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Internacional's away record stands at 13W 11D 14L across their last 38 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.30 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio (Home) vs Internacional (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gremio
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Gremio vs Internacional Form FAQs
What form are Gremio and Internacional in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 33W 14D 29L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Internacional have gone 33W 21D 22L in their last 76 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Internacional away?
Gremio's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.92 PPG; Internacional away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Gremio or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Internacional in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Gremio's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gremio
4
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Gremio vs Internacional H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gremio have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Internacional last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Gremio 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Internacional 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Internacional in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gremio vs Internacional Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gremio and Internacional matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 50% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gremio and Internacional matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Internacional matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Gremio's recent matches and 68% of Internacional's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 5, as Gremio and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.05 xG and Internacional 1.13 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Internacional attack 1.01 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 36% | Internacional 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Internacional 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.