Gremio 1-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Gremio welcome Coritiba to Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gremio, 0 for Coritiba and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.50 xG and Coritiba 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.010 / defence 0.949 | Coritiba attack 1.074 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.039. Data: 50 Gremio games / 12 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Coritiba 3.85. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Gremio 1.50 / Coritiba 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | Coritiba attack 1.074 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Gremio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Coritiba kick off?
Gremio vs Coritiba kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Gremio 1 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Gremio vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Coritiba part of?
Gremio vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 47% chance of winning, Coritiba a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gremio and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Coritiba?
Record (2 meetings): Gremio 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Gremio and Coritiba in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gremio home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 1.01x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.80
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.56
1.06
Coritiba xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gremio and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Gremio and 1.06 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Coritiba runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2023, when Gremio won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Gremio
0
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Coritiba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Gremio 1-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Coritiba?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Coritiba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Coritiba 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.50 xG and Coritiba 1.06 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Coritiba attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.